The much anticipated Jobs Report arrived with an upside surprise, showing 54,000 jobs lost during August, quite a bit better than the consensus estimates of 120,000 jobs lost. While the number still shows jobs lost, let's remember that a big part of this decline was from the elimination of 114,000 temporary census worker positions. There was a lot of anticipation about the jobs created in the private sector - and this number also surprised to the upside with 67,000 job creations, far better than the 44,000 originally forecast.
Therefore, bond prices are down more than 50bp, and over 100bp from where they were a couple of days ago. There's been some technical damage as well, as the floor of support at the 25-day Moving Average - was badly broken. The next floor of support lies at the 50-day Moving Average, which could represent a significant worsening in price.
A deeper look at the Jobs Report also showed some significantly positive revisions, which added 123,000 for the past two months reports. The Unemployment Rate did tick up to 9.6%, but was inline with expectations, and this includes 550,000 people re-entering the work force.
While this report was not great, it was a lot better than what we've seen…and has to be viewed as encouraging. This report contradicts the arguments for deflation and a double dip recession…and should keep any additional Fed intervention on hold.We sure hope so!
Finally…where did the summer go? Labor Day is already here, and we wish you a great weekend. Our next Update will arrive on Tuesday morning.
Today’s Base Rates:
No incentives or adjustments factored into these rates. All are based on a 30-day lock.
30-Yr Fixed Conforming Loan--4.125%--(4.38% APR)
15-Yr Conforming Loan —3.625%--(3.89% APR)
5-Yr Fixed Conforming Loan—3.%--(3.21% APR)
30-Yr Fixed Jumbo/Conforming Loan—4.25%--(4.49% APR)